Thursday, April 23, 2009
Americans Want Real Change in Cuba Policy
A majority of Americans feel that it is time to try a new approach to Cuba, according to a national poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org. More specifically, the public favors lifting the ban on travel to Cuba for Americans and re-establishing diplomatic relations as well as other changes.
By a wide margin the American public believes that increasing trade and travel will lead Cuba to become more open and democratic rather than having the effect of strengthening the Communist regime.
These are among the findings of a new national poll of Americans on the subject of Cuba policy conducted March 25 - April 6, 2009 among 765 adults (margin of error +/- 3.7 percentage points).
Time for Changing US Policies
A majority (59%) of the American public endorses the view that it is "time to try a new approach to Cuba, because Cuba may be ready for a change". Thirty-nine percent of Americans endorsed the opposing position on this issue, that "the Communist Party is still in control; therefore the US should continue to isolate Cuba."
A clear majority of Democrats (71%) favor trying a new approach while Republicans are divided with 52 percent favoring continued isolation and 47 percent favoring a new approach. Independents are also divided (50% - new approach, 45% continued isolation).
The public, by a large majority, feels that US government leaders should be ready to meet with Cuban leaders. Overall 75 percent of those interviewed feel that US leaders should be willing to meet their Cuban counterparts; only 23 percent feel this is a bad idea. On this issue, partisan groups agree. A majority of Republicans (66%), independents (64%), and Democrats (86%) all have the view that US leaders should be ready to meet with Cuban leaders.
Travel to Cuba
The American public (70%) feels that in general Americans should be free to visit Cuba, and only a minority (28%) feels that Americans should be prohibited from visiting the island. Freedom for Americans to visit Cuba is broadly supported by Republicans (62%), by independents (66%), and by Democrats (77%). Lifting the prohibition on visiting Cuba would require a change in US policy that has been in place since 1963.
The public by a very large majority approves of this Obama Administration policy announced on March 11, 2009 which relaxed restrictions on travel to Cuba for the purpose of visiting relatives (79% approve, 19% disapprove). Republicans show substantial majority support (71%) even though the policy change is clearly linked in the question and in press treatments to the new Democratic president. Independents (70%) and Democrats (90%) by large margins also support the policy change.
Diplomatic Relations
Americans likewise favor re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba by a clear majority - 69 percent favor, only 28 percent are opposed. All partisan groups support re-establishing diplomatic relations, though Democrats do so in larger numbers (82%) than Republicans (57%) or independents (58%).
To understand trends in American opinion, the diplomatic relations question was drawn from a question used by the Gallup organization in 2002, 04, 06, and 08. Over this period, the proportion of Americans which favors re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba has increased from 55% (2002, 2004), to 67% in 2006, 61% in 2008 and currently 69%. The Program on International Policy Attitudes asked a quite similar question in 1998 and found that 56% of Americans supported re-establishing relations. Other organizations (CNN, Associated Press) have also reported that a majority of Americans support diplomatic relations with Cuba, and the trend favoring diplomatic relations seems to be increasing.
Impact of US Travel and Trade
One of the core arguments in Cuba policy is whether increasing all kinds of contact between the US and Cuba - travel, trade, diplomacy - will strengthen the Castro regime or will have a liberalizing effect on the system.
Americans feel, by wide margins, that increasing travel and trade between Cuba and the United States is more likely to have the effect of leading "Cuba in a more open and democratic direction" (71%) than to "strengthen the Communist regime in Cuba" (26%). Clear majorities of Democrats (80%), independents (69%) as well as Republicans (59%) share this view.
The public is almost evenly divided, however, when asked specifically about the desirability of continuing the US trade embargo of Cuba or ending the embargo: 48% favor continuing the embargo and 49% favor ending it. Underlying this division is majority Democratic support (58%) for ending the embargo, independents who are divided (46% end the embargo, 49% continue), and majority support for continuing the embargo on the part of Republicans (59%).
Differences between partisan Democrats and Republicans on some aspects of Cuba policy should not be surprising in that they reflect central tendencies within the parties. While Cuba policy was not one of the major issues of the 2008 presidential campaign, the platforms of the two parties, and the positions of the candidates, differed on Cuba. The Democratic platform supported unlimited family visits and remittances; the Republican platform largely reiterated the policies of the Bush Administration. Obama-Biden campaign materials and comments by Senator McCain during the campaign tended to reflect these differences and were generally consistent with their respective party platforms.
The Associated Press - IPSOS poll posed an identical question on lifting the trade embargo in 2007 and found that 40 percent of the public favored ending the embargo. The 49% support for ending the embargo in the current 2009 study is a statistically significant increase from 2007. It appears that American public opinion is trending towards support for lifting the embargo, though it is not presently a majority view.
Appraisal of the Cuban Threat and American Policy
Few Americans feel that Cuba is a very serious threat (7%) to the United States, or even a moderately serious threat (27%). The majority sees Cuba as just a slight threat (33%) or no threat at all (30%) to the US.
This assessment is common across partisan groups: 51 percent of Republicans think Cuba poses little danger to the US, labeling it as "just a slight threat" or "no threat at all" and a clear majority of independents and Democrats (both 70%) see Cuba as being either a slight threat or no threat.
To gauge the public's assessment of the impact of US Cuba policy, respondents were told, "after Fidel Castro came to power, the US ended diplomatic relations, imposed a trade embargo, and prohibited Americans from traveling to Cuba" and were asked what effect they felt these policies have had on the Castro government. Only 29 percent of Americans overall feels that these policies have weakened the Castro government. About half of all Americans (52%) say the policies "neither weakened nor strengthened" the Castro government, and another16 percent say that the policies have strengthened the government. The assessment that US policies towards Cuba have been ineffective, that is, the policies have neither weakened nor strengthened the Castro government, or that they have strengthened it, is by far the most common view across each partisan group - Republicans (63%), Democrats (70%), and independents (73%).
US policies towards Cuba, particularly the embargo and the associated Helms-Burton Act which subjects to legal action non-US companies who trade with Cuba, have provoked ill feelings and criticism in Europe and among friendly countries in the Americas. Americans are divided on whether lifting restrictions on trade and travel with Cuba will affect the image of the US. While 42 percent say that lifting such restrictions would have mainly a positive effect on America's image in the world, 46 percent say it would have neither a positive or negative effect. Only 10 percent say it would have a mainly negative effect. Democrats are more likely (57%) to say lifting these restrictions would have a mainly positive effect than independents (31%) or Republicans (29%).
Among demographic variables, the respondent's education has the largest and most consistent effect on attitudes. People with more education (a bachelor's degree or higher vs. less than a bachelor's degree) are significantly more likely to favor a new Cuba policy 77 percent with a bachelor's degree or higher support re-establishing diplomatic relations, and 65 percent with less education. Similarly, 62 percent of the most educated favor ending the trade embargo and only 44 percent do so with less education.
A similar education effect appears in the public's views that: Cuba is just a slight threat or no threat to the US (rather than a serious threat); it is time to try a new approach to Cuba; it is a good idea for US leaders to be ready to meet with Cuban leaders; Americans in general should be free to visit Cuba; increasing travel and trade will lead Cuba in a more democratic direction; relaxing restrictions on travel and trade with Cuba will have a mainly positive effect on America's image in the world. The impact of higher education on attitudes about Cuba policy is consistent and fairly robust; those with more education show greater support for change and liberalization.
Overview of Partisan Differences and Similarities on Cuba Policy
Cuba policy has been an issue where the political parties have sometimes clashed. In this study, on nearly all questions one can observe statistical differences in views between Republican and Democratic partisans. Republicans do oppose lifting the trade embargo, whereas, Democrats favor ending it. However, on most of the other issues polled concerning Cuba policy, the majority of Republicans and the majority of Democrats agree.
• US government leaders should be ready to meet with Cuban leaders (Republicans 66%, Democrats 86%).
• The Obama Administration's relaxation of Cuban American travel restrictions are supported (Republicans 71%, Democrats 90%).
• Americans in general should be able to visit Cuba (Republicans 62%, Democrats 77%).
• Diplomatic relations with Cuba should be re-established (Republicans 57%, Democrats 82%).
• Increased travel and trade will lead Cuba in a more open, democratic direction (Republicans 59%, Democrats 80%).
• Cuba is "just a slight threat" or "no threat at all" to the US (Republicans 51%, Democrats 70%).
While issues related to Cuba are deeply felt and polarizing for some Americans, there appears to be a broad consensus in favor of more normal relations with the island.
The findings in this study are based upon a nationwide survey conducted March 25 - April 6, 2009 among 765 American adults (margin of error +/- 3.7 percentage points). This WorldPublicOpinion.org study was fielded by Knowledge Networks using its nationwide online panel. This panel is randomly selected from the entire adult population and Internet access is provided to households that need it. For more information about this methodology, go to www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
WorldPublicOpinion.org is a project of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland. Funding for this research was provided by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Calvert Foundation.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/home_page/600.php?nid=&id=&pnt=600&lb=
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Sen. Menendez' Miami Links
By DAVID W. CHEN September 28, 2006 New York Times
MIAMI, Sept. 24 — He shook hands with supporters at Versailles Restaurant on Calle Ocho in Little Havana. He was given the keys to the affluent city of Coral Gables, Fla., at a reception attended by more Republicans than Democrats. He received two proclamations from nearby towns, including one with a Republican mayor who declared Sunday “Senator Bob Menendez Day.”
Yes, that Senator Robert Menendez, the Democrat from New Jersey.
“I want to keep a Republican majority, but not if it means losing Bob Menendez,” said Ana Navarro, a Republican political consultant who helped organize three Menendez for Senate fund-raising events at the historic Biltmore Hotel on Sunday. “He’s part of our extended family.”
At home in northern New Jersey, Mr. Menendez comes across as a textbook Democrat, with a 100 percent scorecard from the League of Conservation Voters, Naral Pro-Choice America and the National Education Association. But in South Florida, a place Mr. Menendez has visited dozens of times over the last two decades, Cuban-Americans and others hail him as a freedom fighter for his fervent anti-Castro views, and revere him as an adopted son who has done well for himself.
This latest visit by Mr. Menendez, which comes amid a competitive Senate race against his Republican opponent, State Senator Thomas H. Kean Jr., is no different. Underscoring the notion that culture and exile politics can transcend geography and partisanship, Republicans in South Florida flock to the side of this Cuban-American legislator — even though the result could help determine whether Democrats regain control of the Senate.
To demonstrate their affection, Floridians have contributed about a million dollars to Mr. Menendez’s campaigns since he was elected to Congress in 1992 — including $530,000, or 5 percent of his total contributions, to his current campaign. Florida is his third largest source of money, behind New Jersey and New York.
Indeed, the money raised in Florida for his current campaign amounts to almost as much as Mr. Kean has raised over all from political action committees in this race.
Yet the star power of Mr. Menendez, 52, cannot be measured by dollars alone. Mr. Menendez, one of the first Cuban-Americans elected to Congress, is so well-known here that he was included in a 2004 poll in which South Floridians gave its Congressional delegation an 85 percent approval rating on Cuba policy.
Some Republicans here have dismissed the 38-year-old Mr. Kean, the son of the popular former New Jersey governor, as inexperienced and even ethnically insensitive.
“It boggles my mind that given the stakes in the U.S. Senate today, with foreign policy and national security where it is, that people of New Jersey would be considering hiring to do this job a junior in every respect,” said Ms. Navarro, who organized a fund-raiser for Mark R. Kennedy, the Republican candidate for Senate in Minnesota, days before Mr. Menendez arrived. “I don’t know Mr. Kean from Adam, but give me a break — a U.S. Senate seat should not be a family heirloom that is passed down from generation to generation.”
When asked about Mr. Menendez’s popularity among Republicans in Miami, Jill Hazelbaker, Mr. Kean’s communications director, said: “Maybe they know Bob Menendez in Florida, but don’t know Bob Menendez in New Jersey, and his record of corruption. Bob Menendez’s experience is exactly what we’re running against.”
Whether Mr. Menendez’s Cuban connections and policy positions will play a significant role in the Senate race is hard to say. An estimated 1.3 million Hispanics, including 77,000 Cuban-Americans, live in New Jersey, according to the latest Census figures. Democratic strategists have long complained privately that Mr. Kean is trying to use Mr. Menendez’s heritage, along with the current debate over illegal immigration, as a wedge issue for swing voters and conservative Democrats.
But Mr. Menendez relishes talking about his Cuban roots in Florida. His voting record on foreign policy issues — long ranked as one of the most conservative among Democrats — have put him ideologically in sync with the people here. For instance, he has consistently supported such Republican positions as tightening the embargo on Cuba, and long opposed the normalization of ties with Vietnam.
He sounds far more bipartisan here than he does on the stump in New Jersey. At one reception, he noted that he had worked with Senator Sam Brownback, a Republican from Kansas, on ending the genocide in Darfur. He also praised three Cuban-American members of Congress from Florida: Lincoln Diaz-Balart; Mario Diaz-Balart, Lincoln’s younger brother; and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.
“I know we’re here for a greater cause than the party,” Mr. Menendez said at another reception.
All told, Mr. Menendez raised about $100,000 on Sunday from two receptions and a private meeting with the Free Cuba PAC, which is affiliated with the powerful Cuban-American National Foundation. The political action committee has given him $25,000 during his career.
One of those in attendance was Raúl Mas Canosa, whose brother, Jorge Mas Canosa, started the foundation and consulted with presidents on Cuba policy before his death in 1997.
“I don’t agree with him on most of his other politics,” said Mr. Mas Canosa, a Republican financier. “But at the end of the day, I think the Cuba issue trumps everything.”
Mr. Menendez’s parents left Cuba in the 1950’s and landed in New York City. Mr. Menendez grew up in Union City, N.J., which for years — with the exception of Miami — was home to more Cuban-Americans outside of Havana than any other city.
He made his first trip to Miami in 1986, while running for mayor of Union City. He impressed Democrats and Republicans in Florida by helping with emergency efforts after Hurricane Andrew, and later, as a congressman, by being a leader on Cuba and Latin America. He burnished those credentials in 2000 during the custody tug of war over Elián González, criticizing the Clinton administration’s decision to return the boy to Cuba rather than giving him asylum in the United States.
“To me, it was always, ‘Wow, what instigated my parents to risk it all and start all over again?’ ” he said in an interview over lunch on Sunday. “It’s called freedom.”
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of Mr. Menendez’s appeal, however, is that Cuban-American Republicans — regardless of where they find themselves on the political spectrum — describe Mr. Menendez’s politics as being similar to their own.
He is a centrist in the eyes of Hector J. Lombana, whose bronze Mercedes-Benz S.U.V. features a bumper sticker backing a moderate Republican who is running for governor. And on Cuba, Mr. Menendez has always been the same way — “immovable,” said Mr. Lombana, who went to the same high school and law school as Mr. Menendez.
He is a conservative in the eyes of Fernando González, who immigrated in 1965. “He’s for Cuban freedom, very conservative,” said Mr. González, a produce importer. “A good person.”
Then again, supporting Mr. Menendez when control of the United States Senate could be at stake can be awkward for Republicans. So when Mr. Menendez criticizes President Bush on everything from the war in Iraq to Social Security and the minimum wage, Republicans in South Florida tend to turn a deaf ear.
“I back my president 100 percent, so I don’t want to know,” said Remedios Diaz-Oliver, president of All American Containers, who attended one of the receptions for Mr. Menendez with several fellow Republicans. “I try to ignore it.”
But these Republicans say that they respect Mr. Menendez’s views, because they know he has thought through the issue, and that he will explain his reasoning and fight for his cause. That respect was on display when Mr. Menendez was feted with the two proclamations on Sunday, including one from Sweetwater, Fla.
Mr. Menendez posed for a photograph with the Sweetwater mayor, Manuel L. Maroño, a Republican, and Mr. Maroño was beaming. “I’m going to put this picture in my office,” the mayor said. “Right next to George Bush.”
Friday, January 16, 2009
Freedom House Statement
Washington
January 7, 2009
http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=70&release=751
The United States should reinvigorate efforts to advance human rights and democracy in Cuba, Freedom House said today. One key element of a strengthened policy would be the lifting of U.S. legal restrictions on American citizen travel to the island.
Cuba has consistently received either the lowest or second-lowest ratings on political rights and civil liberties by Freedom House since it first began publishing the global Freedom in the World survey in 1972. Cuba’s citizens are denied most fundamental rights, including the right to elect their government, participate in political opposition, freely express their views, demonstrate, participate in trade unions, own property, travel, or access information free of government control. Since Raul Castro succeeded his brother as leader of Cuba, some nominal reforms have been announced, though their impact on the lives of Cubans remains negligible.
“Cuba remains one of the most repressive countries in the world,” said Jennifer Windsor, executive director of Freedom House. “It is well past time to reassess a policy that impedes the ability of American citizens to freely interact with Cubans on a large scale and thus expose them to unfettered information about the outside world. We call on the incoming administration of Barack Obama to reexamine the embargo and to immediately lift the restrictions on remittances and travel to and from the island.”
The United States first began introducing economic sanctions against Cuba in 1960 following that government’s seizure without compensation of U.S. assets on the island. Current U.S. sanctions, which strictly limit trade with Cuba to cash-only sales of U.S. farm products and medical supplies, are unique to all other U.S. sanction policies in that they also prohibit U.S. citizens from traveling to Cuba unless they obtain a U.S. government waiver.
“While the Bush administration expanded American support for democracy activists in Cuba, U.S. policy would be even more effective if Americans were allowed to engage more freely with Cuban counterparts,” Windsor continued. “Those countries that have moved from dictatorship to democracy in recent decades have done so in large part because of the movement of people and ideas across borders.”
The United States does not impose similarly restrictive travel sanctions on Americans to other regimes that receive Freedom House’s lowest freedom ratings, including Burma, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
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Freedom House, an independent nongovernmental organization that supports the expansion of freedom in the world, has been monitoring political rights and civil liberties in Cuba since 1972.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
US Civil Society Wants Change in US Policy
At least a dozen letters and reports have been produced in the past few weeks urging decisive action by the new administration on travel to Cuba and could be the basis for a substantive meeting with the transition team:
* from 12 business associations
American Farm Bureau Federation
American Society of Travel Agents
Business Roundtable
Coalition for Employment through Exports
Emergency Committee for American Trade
Grocery Manufacturers Association
National Foreign Trade Council
National Retail Federation
Organization for International Investment
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
U.S. Council for International Business
USA*Engage
See text here
* from 13 academic, business, NGO and advocacy organizations
American Association of State Colleges and Universities
American Friends Service Committee
Church World Service
Fund for Reconciliation and Development
Latin America Working Group
Latin American Studies Association
NAFSA: Association of International Educators
National Foreign Trade Council
Operation USA
Social Science Research Council
Unitarian Universalist Service Committee
USA*Engage
Washington Office on Latin America
See text here
* The American Society of Travel Agents (ASTA press release here) and the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU) [text here] have authored their own statements as well as joined the applicable group letter.
* A summit of 37 travel and tourism industry leaders urged Obama, "Adopt as policy that the citizens of the United States should be free to travel the globe without
artificial restrictions placed on them by their own government." (text here)
* Wayne Smith released a letter from the Emergency Coalition to Defend Educational Travel,(ECDET) at a press conference in company with officials from several universities.
* The Alliance for Responsible Cuba Policy and ENCASA (text here) produced thoughtful letters. The Latin America Working Group and the Washington Office on Latin America launched a sign-on letter and petition that include Cuba within the context of Latin America policy.
* The Cuba Study Group, founded by prominent mainstream Cuban Americans, has issued a report powerfully calling for allowing all travel after previously limiting its position to family visits. See text here
* FRD's on-line letter to the President-elect urging he provide general licenses for all twelve categories of non-tourist travel has topped 1100 grass roots signers (83% were active Obama supporters or donors), with many eloquent comments. See text here.
*A broad group of main line Protestant religious leaders have written to the President-elect urging he :
.. Freely allow religious travel to Cuba.
.. Liberally grant visas for U.S. travel to Cuban pastors and other religious leaders, and no longer bar officials of the Cuban Council of Churches.
.. Lift the travel ban for all Americans.
(The US Conference of Catholic Bishops is already on record against travel restrictions.)
See text and signature list here.
Freedom House, a prominent dissident linked human rights organization which denounces Cuba regularly has called for Obama to "immediately lift the restrictions on remittances and travel to and from the island". (text here )
In addition there have been powerful studies from the Council on Foreign Relations (text here) and the Brookings Institution (summary and link here) as well as editorials in leading newspapers advocating a substantial change in US policy, with travel restrictions a primary focus.
Jake Colvin of USA Engage/National Foreign Trade Council made a compelling case that the President can do virtually anything he wants to modify the embargo, except permit tourism which can be read here.
UPDATE: Julia Sweig of the Council on Foreign Relations sums up many of the arguments for change in a Memo to President Obama which appears in the February issue of Cigar Aficionado and can be read here.
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You can help us be more effective in reaching out to the Obama Adminstration by contacting those you know in the White House, State Department and National Security Council and by making as generous a contribution as possible to sustain our work.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Travel the President Can Allow
Upon taking office, the Obama Administration can use its executive authority to the extent permitted by law to suspend many but not all of the limits on freedom of travel by Americans.
Still prohibited, according to the law and regulations, would only be "tourist activities" which simply "means any activity with respect to travel to, from, or within
OFAC's oversight and enforcement role regarding travel must be limited by the Secretary of the Treasury to providing information about the twelve authorized categories, the nature of a general license, and remaining restrictions on “tourist activities”, thus redeploying staff energies to real national security concerns. (Bush regulations should also be revoked that misuse customs agents to search for and confiscate personal goods and souvenirs brought from
(2) Official business
(3) Journalistic activity
(4) Professional research
(5) Educational activities
(6) Religious activities
(7) Public performances, clinics, workshops, athletic and other competitions, and
exhibitions
(8) Support for the Cuban people
(9) Humanitarian projects
(10) Activities of private foundations or research or educational institutes
(11) Exportation, importation, or transmission of information or informational materials
(12) Certain export transactions
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Add your name to an on-line letter to Barack Obama favoring non-tourist travel here.
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You can help us be more effective in reaching out to the Obama Adminstration by contacting those you know in the transition team and among prospective appointees and by making as generous a contribution as possible to sustain our work.